Monday, September 25, 2006

Cubs should look into Astrology

Manager Phil Garner was getting hit with a barrage of questions regarding the trade rumors surrounding Astros ace Roger Clemens, who was expected to be wearing a Yankees or Red Sox uniform by the July 31 trade deadline. Having no luck dodging the questions, Garner tried a little humor.

"All we have to do is be in the pennant race by [the deadline]," Garner said, chuckling at the absurdity of his own remark.

The date was May 24. The Astros were at rock bottom in 2005 -- weighed down by a 15-30 record after a loss to the Cubs at Wrigley Field.

The Astros were second-to-last in the National League wild-card standings, ahead of only the Rockies. Garner was a safer bet to be fired before Clemens could be traded. A pennant race and the Astros didn't figure to be mentioned in the same sentence again this season -- not with Clemens complaining of a groin injury, Lance Berkman returning slowly from a shredded right knee and Jeff Bagwell ailing with a sore right shoulder.

Then the Astros did what they seem to do best. They awoke from their slumber and made a charge for the playoffs, just as they had done in 2004, when they went 36-10 at the end of the regular season to snatch the wild card away from the bumbling Cubs.

As they open a three-game series against the Cubs tonight at Minute Maid Park, where Houston is 39-18, the Astros are the NL wild- card leaders -- by a half-game over the Phillies -- with a 63-54 record. The Cubs are closer to last place in the NL Central than to catching the Astros, but they still dream of claiming the wild card.

The Astros have become the success story used as inspiration by every underachieving team in baseball -- notably the Cubs.

The difference between this year's Astros and the 2004 edition that reached Game 7 of the NL Championship Series is a lineup that looks far less intimidating. Offensive weapons such as Carlos Beltran and Jeff Kent left before the season started. Bagwell has been out since May 4 and underwent shoulder surgery on June 7, though he hopes to return in September.

The rotation has carried the club, but Clemens, 43, has been bothered by back pain during his last four starts, and right-hander Brandon Backe has been on the disabled list since July 25 -- with no timetable for a return -- because of a strained abdominal muscle.

If the Cubs are going to make a desperate run at the wild-card, they need to make their move beginning tonight.

Clemens, whose remarkable 1.32 ERA is the majors' best, won't pitch in this series.

That's a break for the Cubs, but only a small one, with Roy Oswalt (whose 2.57 ERA is fourth-best in the NL) and Andy Pettitte (2.62 ERA, fifth-best in NL) scheduled for this series. The Astros' starter tonight, rookie lefty Wandy Rodriguez, made his major- league debut against the Cubs on May 23 and was tagged for four runs and six hits in 52/3 innings as the Astros fell 4-1.

Rodriguez has won five of his last seven decisions but has an 8.51 ERA in six home starts.

Offensively, Bagwell is gone, but right fielder Jason Lane has surprisingly picked up the slack. Lane hit only .239 in the first half but has been a big part of the Astros' turnaround, hitting .368 (35-for-95) with 18 RBI since July 5. Rookie of the Year candidate Willy Taveras has replaced Beltran in center field. Taveras, 23, leads all major-league rookies in hits (131), runs (61), stolen bases (27) and singles (114).

But the Astros have been shut out in consecutive games entering the series against the Cubs, a team they face 10 more times this season.

For the Cubs, there's one important thing to keep in mind when dealing with a roller-coaster club -- another major dip could be waiting around the next corner. After all, the 1914 Boston Braves are the only team in major-league history to be 15 or more games under .500 and rebound all the way into the postseason, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.